Winter Forecasts call for “huge snowstorms” in the East

Direct Weather – a popular meteorology-focused channel – provided an update on this winter’s seasonal outlook this month.

It’s also interesting to note that the video goes quite far from the La Nia pattern which has gotten so much attention this summer, suggesting “Huge Snowstorms” in the East.

There is a general opinion that the Pacific Northwest is likely to see wetter and cooler weather during winter, so powder-hungry skiers will be able to find their bliss.

According to Direct Weather, however, this winter will bring above-average temperatures and no perceptible deviation from the region’s normal snowfall, meaning in his view it would swing either way.

Why? As Direct Weather pointed out earlier this month, we are expecting a weak La Nia (La Nia strength is determined by ocean temperatures).

A strong La Nia is supported by sustained negative subsurface temperatures and stronger low-level easterly winds, according to a NOAA report. A weak La Nia usually results in less obvious winter impacts, thus reducing the chances of colder and wetter temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

Even so, NOAA forecasts above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and northern U.S. in its current seasonal outlooks.

One of the biggest differences between NOAA and Direct Weather in these outlooks is that Direct Weather forecasts colder-than-average temperatures in the East, compared to NOAA, who predicts above-average temperatures.

The seasonal outlooks of NOAA may change. As part of its mid-month update, the agency republishes a complete set of year-long seasonal outlooks that will cover the duration of the winter. The next update will be on October 17th.

El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which involves swings between La Nia and El Nio, is one of the best tools for forecasting an upcoming winter.

There are still a lot of variables to consider between now and February, and this ski season is less certain than in the past. The final word is in the hands of Mother Nature, based on historical occurrences. In a blog post, Thomas di Liberto of NOAA noted that there are great differences even within La Nia events.